Evidence Investing

Well, its been ugly....  The S&P is about where it was 6 months ago...

One of the indicators I use for very broad 'invested versus cash' type decisions is the 12 period Simple Moving Average on a monthly chart.  Its simple, slightly better than the 1o SMA or EMA.  Its NOT tactical at all...really strategic, at best.  Yet, very convincing:

So we are just squeaking by in bullish territory...  Holding on by the skin of our teeth.  The tipping point is 1072 for the S&P....and it has to be a monthly CLOSE below that level.  So stay tuned for another up-date at the end of June.